A Slow Growth Environment?
A SLOW GROWTH ENVIRONMENT If you listen to the analysts, first quarter earnings will be challenged. Consensus estimates have earnings declining by 6% to 7% year over year across the
MACRO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH – Canaries in the Coal Mine?
CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE? We all knew that aggressive interest rate hikes would eventually break something. The first shoe dropped on March 10th and March 11th, when
A Conditional Pause
A CONDITIONAL PAUSE The Bank of Canada (BoC) is out front once again. The BoC was the first of the G-7 central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes early in
MACRO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH REPORT – A View From 40,000 Feet
WHAT ARE WE MISSING? Despite clear signs that inflation is cooling, central bankers remain hawkish. Notable among the hawks is U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, who penned
MACRO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH REPORT – Frontloading Inflation
FRONT LOADING INFLATION Come with me to another dimension. A dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A dimension of unlimited possibility, where if you’re careful, the
MACRO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH REPORT – The Fed’s Two-Step
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS It seems that economists are changing their views as often as Putin changes generals. Case in point: the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) World Economic Outlook (WEO) published
MACRO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH REPORT – September Swoon
SEPTEMBER SWOON Let’s take a collective deep breath. September, which historically is the worst month for stocks, has passed – and it did not disappoint! We saw 10% declines in
Macro-Economic Research – The Impossible Dream
BUYING INTO THE IMPOSSIBLE DREAM For the past two months financial markets have been stuck in a trading range that runs the gambit between fear and greed – a classic
Recession Update
ENTERING A RECESSION? There is much debate about whether the U.S. economy is in a recession. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advanced estimate, the U.S. economy