Looking Back 

Corporate earnings continued to carry markets, as we expected. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve proved as unpredictable as we anticipated, raising interest rates in September for the first time in three years. 

We flagged energy as the biggest risk to inflation easing, but underestimated how quickly oil would climb back above $100 a barrel after falling to around $70 in July. 

Gains that had been spreading across more companies narrowed again as borrowing costs rose. 

The Canadian market cooled as the trade risk we identified turned into a breakdown in negotiations.

Key Takeaways Portfolio Managers Brief — August 2026 Three of June’s four questions now have answers Inflation has peaked. Corporate earnings justified the valuations markets were carrying. AI-related capital spending…

Markets continue to demonstrate resilience despite persistent uncertainty.

Economic concerns remain, but outcomes have been better than expected.
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics continue to shape markets.
Investor focus has increasingly shifted toward fundamentals.

Inflation Shock Reset the Market Narrative
• Markets absorbed a real, energy-driven inflation shock, not just expectations.
• Higher oil prices are now directly impacting growth forecasts and consumer sentiment.

March reinforced the market shift we discussed last month toward greater selectivity, but added a new variable as geopolitical tensions escalated following Operation Epic Fury.

This triggered a spike in oil prices, a shift lower in interest rate expectations, and a short-term increase in market volatility.

Markets pulled back as investors questioned whether this was the start of a broader sell-off or simply temporary volatility.

February 2026 Key Takeaways

The Starting Point

Markets entered January with three dominant assumptions: rate cuts were coming, AI would continue to lead, and safe-haven assets remained in favor.

January tested how durable those assumptions were when confronted with stronger economic data, shifting policy expectations, and crowded positioning.

Market Performance Snapshot

Canadian and U.S. markets finished 2025 with strong returns.

Early 2026 performance reflects a more mixed and selective environment.

Leadership is no longer broad-based, particularly within technology.

Rates: Expectations Were Repriced

Key Takeaways November 2025 Markets at New Highs, But Leadership Is Narrow North American equities hit new highs on cooler inflation and resilient Q3 earnings, but gains are increasingly concentrated in select sectors and mega-cap names. Day-to-day moves are being driven more by central bank messaging than the rate cuts themselves. Index Scorecard (YTD Snapshot) […]

Key Takeaways November 2025 Markets at New Highs, But Leadership Is Narrow North American equities hit new highs on cooler inflation and resilient Q3 earnings, but gains are increasingly concentrated in select sectors and mega-cap names. Day-to-day moves are being driven more by central bank messaging than the rate cuts themselves. Index Scorecard (YTD Snapshot) […]

Key Takeaways U.S. Market Leadership Canadian Market Momentum Index Performance (YTD) (September 25th , 2025) Valuation Concerns Fed Chair Powell’s Caution Technical Indicators Small-Cap Risks Central Bank Shifts Labour Market Cooling U.S. Canada Inflation & Policy Outlook Portfolio Positioning Final Thoughts