Despite clear signs that inflation is cooling, central bankers remain hawkish. Notable among the hawks is U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, who penned a recent essay that put a bold exclamation point on their concerns about inflation. He believes the Fed should keep raising rates until it can say, with confidence, that the policy initiatives have quelled inflation. In short, look for more rate hikes at least through the next two meetings and possibly through June 2023.

It seems that economists are changing their views as often as Putin changes generals. Case in point: the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) World Economic Outlook (WEO) published in mid-October, revised downward 2023 growth expectations. The IMF now believes the global economies will collectively grow at 2.3% in 2023, which is 0.2% below the previous WEO forecast released in July. Look for more of the same in the coming months as economists compete in a race to the bottom.

Let’s take a collective deep breath. September, which historically is the worst month for stocks, has passed – and it did not disappoint! We saw 10% declines in U.S. markets, while Canadian stocks, buoyed by energy and basic materials, lost less than half that amount.

For the past two months financial markets have been stuck in a trading range that runs the gambit between fear and greed – a classic tug of war buttressed by vague macro-economic scenarios that are, at best, subjective.

Efforts to pinpoint the terminal interest rate[1] vary depending on the latest iteration of ‘Fed speak’. Currently, market participants seem to have priced in an interest rate trajectory that will culminate somewhere between 3.75% to 4.25%.

are causing the imbalances.

What impact are global transportation bottlenecks having on prices along the supply chain? How much of the demand surge is a desperate attempt by consumers to feel normal again? What impact is the Ukraine war having on food and energy prices? Did government sponsored pandemic relief programs provide too much stimulus? Each of these factors has an impact. The chart to the right is our best guess as to the relevancy of each of these components.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no apparent solution through international diplomacy, some commentators are wondering if an end to the conflict could come if Vladimir Putin is removed from power.

Even U.S. President Joe Biden in a speech delivered in Poland said Putin “cannot remain in power.” Despite White House attempts to downplay the rhetoric, President Biden was steadfast that he was “not walking anything back!”

Many investors are starting to feel uncomfortable watching their investment portfolios decrease in value as markets continue to decline from the November 2021 highs. A review of past market corrections can provide us with some general guidelines to help manage expectations. How much more selling is yet to come, however, and how long it will take for the markets to turn around is still largely unpredictable.

The performance of stocks through April month-end was not only painful, but it was also significant. The first four months of 2022 marked the worst January to April swoon for US stocks in history. The S&P 500 Index ended April down 13.31% from its’ December 27th, 2021, peak. The tech heavy Nasdaq composite index is off 23.18% since its November 15th, 2021, peak, officially putting growth stocks in bear market territory.

The Ukraine war, fallout from sanctions, hawkish sentiment among global central banks and gyrations in commodity markets add layers of uncertainty to what was already an uncertain environment for financial markets.

In this setting, forecasts are, at best, conditional and rest on a foundation of radical uncertainty (see article “Stuff Happens”). While we can quantify risk (i.e., options price implied volatility) and then assign probabilities (i.e., trading ranges) using statistical analysis, uncertainty, defined as ‘unknowable unknowns’, cannot be measured. That fact severely limits our confidence in evaluating potential outcomes and appropriate investment strategies.