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macro-economic research report

Research Report: Rolling Recession?

Imagine a business cycle where twists and turns rotate through sectors of the economy like a game of musical chairs. Only in this game, one chair is replaced by another, turning the traditional game of musical chairs into a never-ending game where no players are left behind. A never-ending game of musical chairs is the blueprint for a rolling recession.

macro-economic research report

Research Report: Measuring Growth

Rather than trying to dodge the inflation / recession raindrops let’s take a collective deep breath, step away from the forces of supply and demand that throw more curve balls than Sandy Koufax and focus on the output side of the economic equation. Where we can drill down on the tool that measures the collective well-being of a nation; Gross Domestic Production, or its’ acronym: GDP.

macro-economic research report

Research Report: Canaries in the Coal Mine?

We all knew that aggressive interest rate hikes would eventually break something. The first shoe dropped on March 10th and March 11th, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took control of two insolvent commercial banks: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY) were the second and third largest bank failures since Washington Mutual collapsed in 2008.

macro-economic research report

Research Report: A Conditional Pause

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is out front once again. The BoC was the first of the G-7 central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes early in the cycle and is now the first to signal a pause after raising the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) on Wednesday January 25th, 2023. The BoC’s overnight lending rate now stands at 4.5%, a 15-year high.

macro-economic research report

Research Report: A View From 40,000 Feet

Despite clear signs that inflation is cooling, central bankers remain hawkish. Notable among the hawks is U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, who penned a recent essay that put a bold exclamation point on their concerns about inflation. He believes the Fed should keep raising rates until it can say, with confidence, that the policy initiatives have quelled inflation. In short, look for more rate hikes at least through the next two meetings and possibly through June 2023.

macro-economic research report

Research Report: The Fed’s Two-Step

It seems that economists are changing their views as often as Putin changes generals. Case in point: the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) World Economic Outlook (WEO) published in mid-October, revised downward 2023 growth expectations. The IMF now believes the global economies will collectively grow at 2.3% in 2023, which is 0.2% below the previous WEO forecast released in July. Look for more of the same in the coming months as economists compete in a race to the bottom.