You can be excused for thinking that equity markets have gotten ahead of themselves. As of the close of trading on Monday June 8th, 2020, the S&P 500 composite index had recovered all year-to-date losses. Even more impressive was the performance of the NASDAQ 100 stock index which set another all-time high. That was, of course, before Thursday’s sell-off that highlighted the fragile foundation underpinning equity markets.
Professional money managers look at investments in terms of risk versus return. Hence the concept of risk-adjusted return, which is the central theme underpinning portfolio management. However, that is very different from the way most individuals look at investments. Investors understand return because it is quantifiable. It is simple math. Risk not so much!
Forecasting is about establishing scenarios and assigning probabilities. While difficult at the best of times, developing a rational thesis on the back of COVID-19, is all but impossible. We are confronted with a new virus that has no boundaries and for which epidemiologists have yet to understand its genetic code. As curves flatten around the world, there is concern about a second tsunami in the autumn and the possibility of interim community transmission spikes that could last until 2021.
President Trump wanted to re-open the US economy by April 12th because postponing a return to normalcy “could make the cure worse than the disease.” He eventually backed off at the behest advisors. But he was right about the need to strike a balance between the carnage caused by an economic shutdown versus lives lost to the coronavirus.
We fear what we do not control and what we cannot explain. Dramatic headline powered gyrations in financial markets, escalating infection rates, varying pandemic trajectories and response protocols delivered by a politically biased 24-hour news cycle.
What about the future? How deep is impending recession? How long will it last? What are the long-term implications of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus? And when will the stock market bottom?
The trade war between Trump and China may have reached a temporary truce but signs of escalation remain. With the ongoing conflict creating more uncertainties, investors are looking for better strategies to minimize the risks and ride out the ongoing trade issues.
There has been an overriding question raised during our investment committee meetings over the past several months “what’s changed?” and to this point the answer continues to be a resounding “nothing”.
The U.S. and China went tit for tat during the month of August as both sides introduced a new round of tariffs. Economic data came in somewhat weaker than expected and once again, the U.S. treasury bond market “inverted” and thereby flashed another recessionary signal.
Recession fears have been tilting investor sentiment for the past two years making the lon
Last month we referenced the continued-up trend in the Canadian and U.S. stock markets for the month of June as being driven by the expectation of a more accommodating monetary policy from Central Banks, along with a fear-of-missing-out mindset on the part of investors.
A melt up defined by Investopedia “as a dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.”
