Is China on the precipice of an economic collapse? The world’s second biggest economy faces several hurdles, not the least of which is the trickle-down effects from a property sector plagued by excess leverage. This is especially disturbing because real estate influences about 29% of China’s GDP.

Imagine a business cycle where twists and turns rotate through sectors of the economy like a game of musical chairs. Only in this game, one chair is replaced by another, turning the traditional game of musical chairs into a never-ending game where no players are left behind. A never-ending game of musical chairs is the blueprint for a rolling recession.

Rather than trying to dodge the inflation / recession raindrops let’s take a collective deep breath, step away from the forces of supply and demand that throw more curve balls than Sandy Koufax and focus on the output side of the economic equation. Where we can drill down on the tool that measures the collective well-being of a nation; Gross Domestic Production, or its’ acronym: GDP.

INFLATION COOLS BUT LESS THAN EXPECTED The June read in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) supported the position that inflation is receding. US inflation came in lighter than expected rising 0.1% month over month (through May month end) which was in line with...

A SLOW GROWTH ENVIRONMENT If you listen to the analysts, first quarter earnings will be challenged. Consensus estimates have earnings declining by 6% to 7% year over year across the entire S&P 500 spectrum of companies. This is the most severe reset since the...