MID 2025 OUTLOOK Cue the music as we pay homage to the Eagle’s classic Hotel California. Where the ‘dark desert highway’ leads to a shimmering light cascading on an economic labyrinth that could be heaven or hell! Enter the Tiffany-twisted consumer and her pretty,...
Trying to make investment decisions while operating in a vacuous state is like trying to win at poker with a deck that keeps reshuffling itself mid-hand. A stray comment from a central banker, a vague tweet from a billionaire President, haphazard tariff headlines...
The forecasting business is premised on the position that “what-was-will-continue-to-be!” Within that framework, economists review historical precedents and assign probabilities to potential outcomes. The idea that predicting macro-economic outcomes is more art...
Trumpcession? As we listen to President Trump’s tariff “jibber jabber” (the classic line from the hit show Boston Legal), we bear witness to a masterful example of speaking much and saying little! Think of the noise as an unscripted comedy that is all about...
Canada is gearing up for a trade war which, in many ways, feels like an episode of Three Stooges
You can’t miss it… the metaphorical elephant in the room. That outsized awkward issue that we pretend not to see.
Since the landslide victory of Donald J Trump, the stock market has surged to record highs propelled by animal spirits. To understand animal spirits, imagine the stock market as a jungle….
First a caveat. As a proud Canadian, I have no skin in this game. Whatever one thinks about Donald Trump, does not change the fact he will be leading the US government for at least the next four years.
Since the lows of last November, North American financial markets have come alive like a phoenix rising from the ashes. The welcomed 50 bp rate cut by the Fed was really a cherry on top of the sundae. The real story is the marked change in the tone of Fed Speak.
If it were not enough that investors are digesting less than stellar second quarter earnings, they are also dealing with the mixed seasonal patterns unique to August. August tends to be a mediocre month for stocks, with no strong directional bias.
