According to most polls, former Vice-President Joe Biden has a commanding – almost insurmountable – lead as we enter the last four weeks of the US Presidential election. Some have gone as far as to suggest we will see a blue wave where the Democrats not only take the Presidency but also Congress and the Senate.
From our perspective there are two main factors influencing financial markets: 1) the seeming disconnect between market performance and economic reality and 2) the impact of the US Presidential election with potential constitutional challenges that go beyond who wins or loses.
We will explore these issues in our commentary and share some of diversification techniques intended to protect client portfolios within the context of the long-term economic realities and the potential presidential outcome.
You can be excused for thinking that equity markets have gotten ahead of themselves. As of the close of trading on Monday June 8th, 2020, the S&P 500 composite index had recovered all year-to-date losses. Even more impressive was the performance of the NASDAQ 100 stock index which set another all-time high. That was, of course, before Thursday’s sell-off that highlighted the fragile foundation underpinning equity markets.
historically, is meant to cover a range of topics and issues.
For example, in 2015 the United Nations General Assembly set as its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 17 separate goals for attaining and then sustaining a desirable future, which ranged from the elimination of poverty and hunger to establishing gender equality. Only two specifically related to climate and clean energy.
Professional money managers look at investments in terms of risk versus return. Hence the concept of risk-adjusted return, which is the central theme underpinning portfolio management. However, that is very different from the way most individuals look at investments. Investors understand return because it is quantifiable. It is simple math. Risk not so much!
Forecasting is about establishing scenarios and assigning probabilities. While difficult at the best of times, developing a rational thesis on the back of COVID-19, is all but impossible. We are confronted with a new virus that has no boundaries and for which epidemiologists have yet to understand its genetic code. As curves flatten around the world, there is concern about a second tsunami in the autumn and the possibility of interim community transmission spikes that could last until 2021.
There are two foundational themes to the discussion of the merits of ESG (ethical) investing: values and performance. The COVID 19 experience can be expected to impact both of these. For many ESG investors, the impact on performance is likely to be the most interesting, and perhaps the most difficult to predict.
It should be expected that the COVID 19 experience may have a profound impact on ESG investing behaviours and related topics.
President Trump wanted to re-open the US economy by April 12th because postponing a return to normalcy “could make the cure worse than the disease.” He eventually backed off at the behest advisors. But he was right about the need to strike a balance between the carnage caused by an economic shutdown versus lives lost to the coronavirus.
We fear what we do not control and what we cannot explain. Dramatic headline powered gyrations in financial markets, escalating infection rates, varying pandemic trajectories and response protocols delivered by a politically biased 24-hour news cycle.
What about the future? How deep is impending recession? How long will it last? What are the long-term implications of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus? And when will the stock market bottom?
